There are countless articles sharing national opinions on the housing market. Each article may be utilizing different criteria for their data, so it's always a good idea to review where and how data is sourced. The data included in reports can be old and can be based on average trends, not local data. Anytime you see an article, always read it carefully to make sure what is being reported and don't assume it's about your local housing market.
It's imperative to have an understanding of LOCAL real estate markets now more than ever. Checking sales statistics on the MLS and knowing local trends are 2 key factors that can assist in being helpful to home buyers and sellers. In Phoenix, we have a great tool to provide an even deeper level of understanding of the local housing market. The Cromford Market reports are produced by Michael Orr and available by subscription. One such report is the Cromford Market Index that provides key indicators of when the housing market is in a buyers market, a balanced market or a seller's market. The Cromford Market Index report looks at forward indicators to help predict when it's a good time to buy or sell a home in the Phoenix metro area.
Notice that in 2012 in the above chart, the market turned, favoring sellers. The same indicator just occurred for 2025. I bought a rental property in 2012. That home has almost tripled in value.
There are still buyers sitting on the sidelines deciding when is the best time to jump into the housing market. And especially after the crazy frenzy that drove prices into double digit increases in home values. But lately, interest rates are fairly static. And rates just dropped 1/4 point drop thanks to the Fed Chair. But is it a good time to buy a house in Phoenix, Arizona?
For insights, the Daily Observations within the Cromford reports share Michael Orr's research on the Phoenix metro area housing market:
Oct 3 - The affidavits of value have been counted and analyzed for Maricopa County's September filings and here is what we found:
- There were 5,933 closed transactions, up 6.3% from 5,494 in September 2024 and up 1.0% from August.
- There were 1,313 closed new homes, down 8.9% from 1,441 in September 2024 but up 0.2% from August.
- There were 4,620 closed re-sale transactions, up 11.5% from 4,143 in September 2024 and up 1.2% from August.
- The overall median sales price was $488,772, up 3.6% from September 2024 and up 2.9% from August.
- The new home median sales price was $532,645, up 2.7% from September 2024 but down 0.4% from August.
- The re-sale median sales price was $470,000, up 4.4% from September 2024 and up 4.5% from July.
To sum up the above commentary, Closed sales are up; new home sales are down year over year, median prices are rising for both re-sale and new construction.
Knowing the number of sales including pending, under contract accepting back up offers, and contingent contracts is proof that buyers are back in town and sealing up contracts on homes. Housing market statistics reflect that activity on the Cromford Report!
Home sales between $300,000 -$500,000 comprise the largest number of home sales in Maricopa County. Home sales have been steady and not declining in this price range. Notice the criteria for the report: Single family homes, priced between $300,000 - $500,000, but the statistics end 9/8/25. 
Real estate has a common indicator with the stock market. If you wait till prices have risen (stocks or houses), then it's too late. You've missed that early opportunity to buy right! It's a common human falacy to wait for headlines to tell you what you should do, buy a house or buy a stock for instance. But by the time the article is written, you've missed that lower price. Thankfully, the
NOW is a great time to buy a home! Prices continue to rise. The economy in Phoenix is good. Companies are still moving to the Phoenix area and expansion of power lines and a new reservoir for water are forthcoming.
If you're looking to buy or sell a home, interview your agent. Ask how many homes they've sold. Ask what they think of the existing market. Can they tell you in 30 seconds what's going on in the housing market? Choosing an educated agent who can share specific details about your local housing market should help when it comes to negotiating price and terms to give you satisfaction of the home you purchase or the one you sell.
